Analisis valuasi harga saham perdana dengan metode "free cash flow to firm" dan "real option" pada bursa efek indonesia

Paramitha, Adhy Listya (2013) Analisis valuasi harga saham perdana dengan metode "free cash flow to firm" dan "real option" pada bursa efek indonesia. Masters thesis, Institut Pertanian Bogor.

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Abstract

Initial public offering (IPO) or going public is an alternative source of funding through an increase in the company's equity by way of offering shares to the public. Law. 8 of 1995 on Capital Markets defines public offering as offers securities activities conducted by issuers to sell securities to the public by the procedures set forth in the statute and its implementing regulations. The intended effect is that securities promissory notes, commercial paper, stocks, bonds, evidence of debt, fund units of collective investment contracts, futures contracts on securities and derivatives of any securities. IPO pricing is a major concern by financial analysts because it is correlated with the success or failure of an IPO or initial public offering (IPO). Initial public offering (IPO) oversubscribed experiencing the initial public offering (IPO) could be said to be successful, the number of shares that investors demand greater than the number of shares offered. However, the owner of the company wants to minimize undervalued due to the undervaluation would lead to transfer wealth (wealth) from the owner to the investors. (Daljono, 2000) The method commonly used by issuers and financial analysts in assessing IPO price / IPO and predict price trends after listing on the stock exchange is the traditional method of the discounted cash flow method (DCF) and the method of relative valuation (RV). This method is commonly used by all issuers who want to list their shares on the Indonesia Stock Exchange. It can be seen from the description of the determination of the offer price contained in the prospectus where the issuer or the information prospectus is an important document in the public bidding process, both stocks and bonds. Both of these methods are still not able to predict the IPO price offered is reasonable. This is due largely empirically shares after the public offering or an initial public offering (IPO) at the Indonesian Stock Exchange (BEI) which uses discounted cash flow and relative valuation is likely to lead undervalued. Based on the above, there are problems in determining where the IPO price and the discounted cash flow method of valuation used relative issuer deemed not able to precisely determine the stock prices. In this case, the method of real option and free cash flow to the firm should be able to determine the IPO price is fair. This study uses secondary data obtained from companies that have gone public and listed on the Indonesian stock exchange period 2008-2012. For the period 2008 - 2012 there were 102 companies doing IPOs on the Stock Exchange. Based on the restrictions that have been mentioned acquired 54 companies that will be the object of research. Secondary data in this study of the prospectus and the issuer's financial statements that do an IPO on the specified period, and other official publications. Valuation method used in this study, the Free Cash Flow to Firm and Real Option to analyze the value of initial stock price. The analytical method used to predict the stock price will be undervalued or overvalued is by using logistic regression analysis. PT. Tiphone Mobile Indonesia, Tbk is used as one of the companies that represent the company being analyzed. The company's IPO in 2011. With the price of Rp. 310 per share. The method used in determining the method of valuation of free cash flow to firm and real option. Based on the use of both methods, calculations obtained using free cash flow to firm (FCFF), giving a value of Rp. 372 per share, while the method of real option (RO) provide an assessment of Rp. 637 per share. The price offered by PT. Tiphone Mobile Indonesia, Tbk is Rp. 310 per share. The offer price is below the stock price of the two methods above. Therefore, the initial public offering price of PT. Tiphone Mobile Indonesia, Tbk is offered at a price of Rp. 310 per share at the IPO can be said to be below the fair price (undervalued). FCFF method of calculation results obtained through 39 listed companies had undervalued, overvalued and 13 issuers had 2 issuers fairly price on pre-listing price prediction using free cash flow to firm. In the Real Option method obtained 47 issuers who have experienced undervalued and overvalued issuers 7. Results of the logistic regression model of free cash flow to firm and Real Option, eighth overall independent variable equity, assets, debts, tenor, JIBOR, sheet stock, the implied volatility and dummy have a significant effect in explaining the IPO price at the Indonesia Stock Exchange period 2008-2012. Partially on FCFF method, there is one variable has a positive and significant influence ie equities. Then there are two variables have a negative and significant effect of the tenor and dummy variables. In the real option models can be partially seen that there is one variable has a positive and significant influence is implied volatility. Then there are two variables have a negative and significant effect of variable tenor and shares. Predictive power of the model of the method of free cash flow to the firm is able to predict at 83.30 percent and the real option method is able to predict the model was 90.7 percent. Based on the models predictions, we can conclude that the prediction model can be used to predict the stock price of the IPO is the model prediction with the real option method because it has a high degree of precision higher price compared with the method of free cash flow to firm.

Item Type: Thesis (Masters)
Uncontrolled Keywords: IPO, Free Cash Flow to Firm, Real Option, IDX, Initial public offering, discounted cash flow, DCF, metode relative valuation, MRV.
Subjects: Manajemen Keuangan
Depositing User: SB-IPB Library
Date Deposited: 29 Apr 2014 06:57
Last Modified: 26 Dec 2019 03:44
URI: http://repository.sb.ipb.ac.id/id/eprint/1867

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