Kinerja saham pada perusahaan konstruksi di bursa efek indonesia

Syamriadi, Yogi (2016) Kinerja saham pada perusahaan konstruksi di bursa efek indonesia. Masters thesis, Institut Pertanian Bogor.

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Abstract

Master Plan for the Acceleration of Indonesian Economic Development is a program supporting the development of national infrastructure for the period 2011-2025 and was initiated by the government period 2009-2014. After the change of government, this program was continued and adapted in Nawa Cita program through 9 priority agenda covered in the National Medium Term Development Plan (RPJMN) 2015-2019 in order to support infrastructure development program. Infrastructure is supported through the construction sectors which are closely aligned. Within Indonesian infrastructure activities, construction sector grown significantly as it is driven by the rapid growth in the country. Indonesian economy is influenced by the growth of construction sector which contributes greatly to the GDP with an average of 10.16% contribution. Construction industry correspond not only to their financial capabilities but also to any events such as : politics and natural disaster. The company’s financial performance can be seen through various financial ratios, among others: the profitability ratios, liquidity ratios, solvency ratios, activity ratios and market ratios. Financial performance of a construction company as measured by financial ratios will show influence on stock performance at a vulnerable time. It is necessary to know the influence of financial ratios to movements in its share price. Financial ratios are prime indicators to view the performance of these listed companies. political events, as in presidential election of the Republic of Indonesia Year 2014, is of concern and provide a benchmark for the next government period. Natural disaster cause significant budgetary pressures, with both narrow fiscal short-term impacts and wider long-term development implications. The objectives of this research are: (1) to analyze the influence of financial ratio factor of profitability, liquidity, solvency, activity and market ratio to stock performance of construction companies on the Indonesia Stock Exchange 2010-2014; (2) to Analyze the effects of cabinet reshuffle, natural disasters and the election of the President of the Republic of Indonesia in 2014 against abnormal stock return of the construction sector in the Indonesia Stock Exchange; dan (3) to formulate financial strategy for companies and investment strategies for investors. Financial performance variables used to analyze construction company financial performance affecting stock return are profitability (ROE), Liquidity (CR), Solvency (DER), Activity (TAT), and Markets (PER). Data regression is the processing techniques used to analyze the variables affecting the stock return. this study used quarterly period, from 2010 to 2014. To address the second objective, this research used the event study and carried out observations on that event window (H-7, H + 7) 7 days before and 7 days after, estimation period used is 90 days before the event month (-90, -7). After analysis of the two previous goals then descriptively will explain the strategy that could serve as an alternative investment policy and its implications for issuers and investors. SWOT is used to analyse the strengths, weaknesses, opportunities and threats on construction stocks. The results of panel data regression showed that the ratio of profitability (ROE), liquidity ratio (CR), solvency ratio (DER), activity ratios (TAT) and the market ratio (PER) are all significantly influence stock return (RS). The value of R-squared (R2) amounted to 70.40%, meaning the variety of stock returns (RS) able to be explained by the independent variables amounted to 70.40% and the remaining 29.60% is explained by other factors outside the model. ROE , CR, and PER provides positive effect while the DER and TAT negatively affect the performance of stock. The paired t-test results for average abnormal return (AAR) shows that sentiment towards the stock market performance is quite varied. Cabinet Reshuffle was a chance to see new policies supporting the construction industry which in turn will stimulate the national economy. These will give positive impacts on the listed state-owned enterprises construction companies and private sector construction companies. Natural disaster has given negative sentiments for the construction companies’ stock. Presidential election events have a positive impact on the performance of the shares of construction companies. Most issuers of construction companies responded positively to presidential election, welcomed the Jokowi-JK Nawa Cita program with an emphasis on infrastructure development. State owned enterprises companies are more sensitive to ministerial reshuffle and presidential events because state owned enterprises shareholder is the government, therefore has relatively close relationship with the government so as to provide an immediate effect. Paired t-test for CAAR showed trends that are similar to AAR significant difference test in a private owned construction company, whose AAR test showed no significant influence, but in CAAR real level difference (negative or positive sentiment) can be caused by accumulated value on stock returns that provide a greater impact on the sentiment of each of these events on the performance of construction stocks. Based on the SWOT analysis of construction stocks, there are 4 strategies in accordance with their respective quadrants that can be considered by the issuer and investor, and after the measurement construction stocks are in Strength - Opportunity quadrant, so as to implement the Rapid Growth strategy. Shares of the construction sector shows an upward trend, powered from internal factors which are the issuer's financial performance and external factors such as government programs and national political events. Financial ratios of a company showed company’s financial performance. Moreover, Investors able to compare the performance of issuer’s shares of and also take advantage of market timing in making investments.

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