Analisis pengaruh faktor internal dan faktor eksternal terhadap return saham subsektor sawit di bursa efek indonesia

Djibran, Rizki Prasojo Ilmawan (2016) Analisis pengaruh faktor internal dan faktor eksternal terhadap return saham subsektor sawit di bursa efek indonesia. Masters thesis, Institut Pertanian Bogor.

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Abstract

The stock exchange is a place where companies can obtain external funding from various financial instruments in the form of securities. Stock is one of stock exchange products that able to gain investors due to movements in stock prices fluctuation. The increase in stock prices may reflect the fundamental condition of the company, so if the company's performance improved the stock prices will rise and produce a good value stock returns. Palm plantation subsector is number two main contributor to the balance of trade export in Indonesia and that make palm plantation subsector a strategic role to Gross Domestic Product (GDP), with high labor needs and high capital involved in this subsector were able to increase employment and contributes to society income. Palm plantation subsector is one of alternative to invest in stock market. There has been a phenomenon with downward trend of return in the periods of 2010-2015. As an export based commodity subsector, curency depreciation should be increasing the issuers performance, but it shows the opposite. The CPO price that shows decline trend during the years of 2010-2015 has a tend to impact on palm plantation subsector stock returns. In year of 2016 CPO Price has increase and will become a positive sentiment. Previous study on the impact of internal and external factors have been carried out with many subsector and various result. Research conducted by Munte (2009), Wulandari (2009), Setyandari (2012), Utami (2014), and Huda (2015) found various results regarding the impact of internal factors such as financial ratios on stock returns, while research conducted by Arianto (2011), Kewal (2012), Naditia (2013), Muthia (2015), and Dirga (2015), found varying results regarding external factors such as macroeconomic on stock returns. Previous research on the impact of the company's fundamentals and macroeconomic conditions to stock returns has been various. Therefore, this study was carried back to analyze the impact of internal and external factors on palm plantation stock returns. This research using descriptive analysis and panel data regression with study period during years of 2010-2015 and seven issuers that has never been delisted on Indoesia Stock Exchange within study period. The independent variables are the Rupiah against the US dollar (NTR), inflation (INF), also the price of CPO (HMS) as well as internal factors such as the quick ratio (QR), debt on equity (DER), earnings per share (EPS), the price earnings ratio (PER), and return on equity (ROE). The dependent variable of this study is the palm plantation subsector stock returns in Indonesia. Based on panel data analysis result, it showed that palm plantation subsector issuers together show varying results on stock returns. Internal variables Quick Ratio (QR), Price Earning Ratio (PER) has a significant impact on palm plantation subsector stock returns. External variables CPO prices (HMS) has a significant impact on palm plantation subsector stock returns on the real level of five percent. The CPO price has shows an increasing trend on 2016, this make the issuers on palm plantation subsector can be used as an alternative on portfolio investment to fandamental aproach investor.

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