Model prediksi kegagalan bpr/bprs berbasis tata kelola

Suwandi, . (2019) Model prediksi kegagalan bpr/bprs berbasis tata kelola. Doctoral thesis, Institut Pertanian Bogor.

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Abstract

Research on the analysis of BPR/BPRS failure predictions is motivated by increasing of BPR/BPRS are determined into the status of Banks under Supervision Status (BDPK). BPR/BPRS in BDPK status which can not be resolved by the banking supervisory institution (currently OJK, previously Bank Indonesia), then submitted as a failed bank to LPS. After analyzing the fulfillment of requirements to be rescued, none of the BPR/BPRS failed to be saved. This means that all BPR/BPRS failed were liquidated. Since LPS operated in 2005 until now, it is recorded that from a total of 1,915 BPR/BPRS that have been operating until 31 December 2017, 184 banks have placed BDPK status, and 84 banks (45%) have had their business licenses revoked by BI/OJK, not including self liquidation. Based on the results of a study conducted by LPS in 2016, the main cause of the increasing of BPR/BPRS being liquidated was due to fraud committed by the owners, management, and bank employees. The findings of the LPS for the deviations include fictitious lending, loan installments that are not recorded in bank’s bookeeping, withdrawal of deposits without the permission from customers, and loans that are not supported by adequate collateral. Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR) is used by OJK as consideration to determine whether BPR/BPRS in BDPK status or not. If the troubled bank has a CAR of less than 4% (four percent), the banking supervisory institution determines the bank's status as BDPK. The purpose of this research are first to test the financial ratio analysis, which is the CAR calculated based on financial statements published by BPR/BPRS, is reliable for predicting bank failure. Second, to develop a failure model for BPR/BPRS based on governance implementation. This research is expected to be input for LPS in developing bank failure prediction analysis especially BPR/BPRS. For OJK, this research is expected to be input in conducting bank restructuring actions, especially BPR/BPRS, for example, it must conduct a financial statement audit by a public accountant regardless of the number of assets owned by BPR/BPRS, provisions regarding the concurrent position between shareholders, commissioners and/or directors . This research was conducted by making a forecasting of BPR/BPRS CAR data published before BDPK. The analysis technique used is the ARIMA forecasting technique, trend analysis and sign tests. Fraud occurs because of weak implementation of good governance (good corporate governance). This study examines several variables as proxies for weaknesses in governance implementation, namely (1) incompleteness of the statement of responsibility if the bank fails from the commissioner; (2) incompleteness statement of responsibility if the bank becomes a failed from the board of directors; (3) there is a dual role between shareholders and members of the board of directors; (4) the status of the BPR/BPRS status previously stipulated as BDPK; (5) the compliance of BPR/BPRS in paying premiums with the right amount, has an influence on the probability of failure of the BPR/BPRS. Furthermore, based on test results, using stepwise analysis and logistic regression modeling is made. The results showed that CAR of BPR/BPRS calculated based on financial reports published by BPR/BPRS every quarter is not reliable to predict failure of BPR/BPRS. In addition, the results of the study also prove that there is a significant influence on the weakness of governance implementation in the failure of BPR/BPRS, namely (1) there is a dual role between shareholders and directors; (2) compliance of BPR/BPRS in paying premiums with the right amount; (3) completeness of the responsibility letter from the directors; (4) completeness of the responsibility letter from the commissioner; and (5) the status of the BPR/BPRS previously has been determined as BDPK. Based on the results of the study, the BPR/BPRS failure prediction model based on governance implementation is as follows: ????=??(??+??-(??.????????????-??.????????????+??.????????????+??.???????????? + ??.???????????? -??.????????)) Where: Pi : BPR/BPRS probability failed X1 : The dual roles of shareholders and members of the board of directors X3 : Compliance with the bank in paying premiums with the right amount X5 : Incomplete statement letter from directors X6 : Incomplete statement letter from the controlling shareholder X8 : Bank has been designated as BDPK Managerial implications on the results of this study are the need to improve the governance of BPR/BPRS, namely (1) policies regarding the prohibition of the dual roles of shareholders and BPR/BPRS board of directors; (2) eliminates exceptions for BPR/BPRS not to report audits finance by public accountants; (3) implementation of sanctions for controlling shareholders or BPR/BPRS board of directors members who do not submit a responsibility letter to LPS to comply with all provisions of the LPS guarantee program and are personally responsible for negligence and/or illegal actions that result in losses or endanger business continuity bank; and (4) increased supervision by OJK with more focus on the implementation of good corporate governance.

Item Type: Thesis (Doctoral)
Uncontrolled Keywords: bank gagal, capital adequacy ratio, failed bank, forecasting, fraud, good corporate governance. capital adequacy ratio, failed bank, forecasting, fraud, good corporate governance.
Subjects: Manajemen Keuangan
Depositing User: SB-IPB Library
Date Deposited: 02 Jul 2020 06:12
Last Modified: 02 Jul 2020 06:12
URI: http://repository.sb.ipb.ac.id/id/eprint/3648

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